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Many ecosystems have experienced anthropogenically induced changes in biodiversity, yet predicting these patterns has been difficult. Recently, individual behavioural and physiological measures have been proposed as more rapid links between environmental variation and fitness compared to demographics. Glucocorticoid hormones have received much attention given that they mediate energetic demands, metabolism, and foraging behaviour. However, it is currently unclear whether glucocorticoids can reliably predict environmental and fitness-related traits and whether they may be useful in specific groups of taxa. In particular, seabirds are a well-studied avian group often employed as biomonitoring tools for environmental change given their wide distribution and reliance on large oceanic patterns. Despite the increase in studies attempting to link variation in baseline corticosterone (the primary avian glucocorticoid) to variation in fitness-related traits in seabirds, there has been no comprehensive review of the relationship in this taxon. We present a phylogenetically controlled systematic review and meta-analysis of correlative and experimental studies examining baseline corticosterone as a predictor of fitness-related traits relevant to predicting seabird population health. Our results suggest that, while variation in baseline corticosterone may be a useful predictor of larger-scale environmental traits such as overall food availability and fitness-related traits such as reproductive success, this hormone may not be sensitive enough to detect variation in body condition, foraging effort, and breeding effort. Overall, our results support recent work suggesting that the use of baseline glucocorticoids as conservation biomarkers is complex and highly context dependent, and we suggest caution in their use and interpretation as simplified, direct biomarkers of fitness.



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