Climate memory and long-range forecasting of sea ice conditions in hudson strait

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2005

Publication Title

Polar Geography

Volume

29

Issue

1

First Page

17

Last Page

26

Abstract

Hudson Strait plays a crucial role for navigation into and out of Hudson Bay. The Strait is ice-covered for eight months of the year. We demonstrate the ability to forecast ice conditions, particularly ice formation and retreat, up to seven months in advance. Sea ice retreat and formation for three locations in Hudson Strait has been successfully forecasted for the years 2000-2003 using sea ice data collected from 1971 to 1999. On average, forecasts for the date of sea ice formation were within a week of the actual formation date, the temporal resolution of the sea ice data. Forecasts for the date of sea ice retreat were within the resolution of the sea ice data at the easternmost site and ±11 and 15 days at the middle and westernmost sites, respectively. Inclusion of the average air temperature of the preceding ice-free season improved the average forecast of ice retreat at the western site by six days while only marginally affecting the other two sites. This initial attempt exploits climate memory which may be applicable elsewhere. © 2005 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

DOI

10.1080/789610163

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