Relative age affects among hockey draftees: An analysis of the Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection and Under-18 drafts.
Standing
Undergraduate
Type of Proposal
Poster Presentation
Faculty
Faculty of Human Kinetics
Faculty Sponsor
Sean Horton
Proposal
Athletes born in the months immediately after a cut-off date often benefit from selection advantages known as relative age effects (RAEs; Barnsley et al., 1985). The purpose of this study was to compare birth distributions of athletes selected in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) Priority Selection and U18 drafts against the larger populations from which they were derived. We sought to determine if the addition of the U18 draft in 2017, which gives players an extra year to develop, would reduce RAEs. Birthdate information for athletes drafted from 2017 through 2020 were retrieved from ontariohockeyleague.com. Chi-square goodness of fit tests were used to compare the birth distributions of athletes from both drafts to what would be expected based upon Canadian population birth rates and Ontario Hockey Federation (OHF) birth rates for ‘Midget’ players. A supplementary analysis was performed to identify differences between the Priority Selection and U18 drafts. Our results showed a significant overrepresentation in the number of players born in the first quartile of the year in both the Priority Selection and U18 drafts compared to Canadian birth rates, providing evidence of RAEs. Similarly, RAEs were found among players in the Priority Selection draft when compared against OHF birthrates, but not for players in the U18 draft. Finally, the birth distribution of players in the Priority Selection were significantly different from those in the U18 draft, with the RAE trend being less pronounced among U18 players. Our findings suggest RAEs remain a prominent issue in the OHL.
Creative Commons License
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Relative age affects among hockey draftees: An analysis of the Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection and Under-18 drafts.
Athletes born in the months immediately after a cut-off date often benefit from selection advantages known as relative age effects (RAEs; Barnsley et al., 1985). The purpose of this study was to compare birth distributions of athletes selected in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) Priority Selection and U18 drafts against the larger populations from which they were derived. We sought to determine if the addition of the U18 draft in 2017, which gives players an extra year to develop, would reduce RAEs. Birthdate information for athletes drafted from 2017 through 2020 were retrieved from ontariohockeyleague.com. Chi-square goodness of fit tests were used to compare the birth distributions of athletes from both drafts to what would be expected based upon Canadian population birth rates and Ontario Hockey Federation (OHF) birth rates for ‘Midget’ players. A supplementary analysis was performed to identify differences between the Priority Selection and U18 drafts. Our results showed a significant overrepresentation in the number of players born in the first quartile of the year in both the Priority Selection and U18 drafts compared to Canadian birth rates, providing evidence of RAEs. Similarly, RAEs were found among players in the Priority Selection draft when compared against OHF birthrates, but not for players in the U18 draft. Finally, the birth distribution of players in the Priority Selection were significantly different from those in the U18 draft, with the RAE trend being less pronounced among U18 players. Our findings suggest RAEs remain a prominent issue in the OHL.